Friday, September 05, 2014

Ukraine: Fire Turned Down While More Wood is Brought?

Today began a ceasefire. It supposed to blanket the entire Donbass. There are already reports of violations, but they are merely reports rather than a whole sale breakdown. The three areas I have heard about are an armoured attack by the rebels/Russians in Vesela Hora and shelling in Shchastya and in Donetsk.

Poroshenko has stated he does not believe the ceasefire will hold. The rebels attempted to hold a press conference in Moscow stating the Ukrainians had violated the ceasefire BEFORE it even started.

There are reports of Russian troops are moving up to the border of Crimea and the Ukrainian mainland. Russian engineers are repairing the tarmac of the Lugansk airport.

Russia is also threatening to send in another humanitarian convoy. Interestingly, at least one of the men from the first convoy was buried in Russia for having "died on vacation."

Reports are the Russians suffering very significant

European enacted the sanctions, targeting the financial and energy industries as well as for specific people.  Russia's bond market is suffering more.

There have been conflicting reports as to what Poroshenko was promised by NATO.

The question now becomes what happens during and after the ceasefire. If it holds, are we going to see both sides rearm and reposition themselves for another round of fighting? Will the Russians come in and place peacekeepers in the Donbass, effectively making this a frozen conflict? Or will the West do for Ukraine what it did for Croatia?

We'll wait and see.

No comments: