Monday, September 08, 2014

Ukraine: Back to Simmering the Lyagushka

The ceasefire apparently stipulated everyone stayed in place. Therefore, the LNR, DNR, Russians and Ukrainians are supposed to stay where they are. However, there are clashes across the front lines. Most notably near Mariupol: Vice News had a dramatic declaration of the ceasefire being over. That remains to be seen.

Poroshenko has claimed NATO will be providing weapons and advisers. It has been disavowed in public, but I have to wonder.  ATGMs and MANPADS would be easy.  Training Ukrainian infantry would be doubly easy.  Transferring xSoviet tanks and other armored fighting vehicles would be the next step up.  Training them in effective armored warfare would be exactly what ought to be done (and relatively easily) during Rapid Trident with NATO.  Just extend it or some of the soldiers stay on.  

Poroshenko visited Mariupol and claimed he would not give up any territory of Ukraine.

The leader of the DNR made a weird statement which claimed the DNR & LNR would never be a part of Ukraine again, but what made it weird was he also stated he was not going to let new oligarchs come in from Russia either just to replace the ones just chased out.  Some have interpreted this as a declaration of independence from Russia, too.   What?  Water getting hot for you, too?

The EU pushed through their sanctions, but they have officially delayed implementing them contingent on what happens in the Donbass.

There are reports of Little Green Men in Moldova.  

Russia has an Estonian counterintel officer: there are varying reports whether he was kidnapped from Estonian territory or not.

We shall see.

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